Mortgage Rates to Rise, Sooner rather than Later
| Trends at a Glance | |||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||
| Feb 10 | Jan 10 | Feb 09 | |
| Median Price: | $780,000 | $665,000 | $649,000 |
| Average Price: | $998,805 | $1,077,295 | $805,496 |
| Home Sales: | 104 | 95 | 61 |
| Sale/List Price Ratio: | 94.9% | 92.3% | 93.9% |
| Days on Market: | 114 | 104 | 86 |
The Fed plans to stop buying mortgage-backed securities the end of March.
The general consensus among mortgage brokers is rates will have to rise to attract new buyers of MBS if the Fed does stop buying. After reaching a low last November, the rate for 30-year fixed mortgages has already risen .25%-.375% in anticipation.
The only MBS that are being sold right now are those that are backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac because they are backed by the U. S. government, at least for loans up to $729,000 in our area.
The question becomes, who is going to buy MBS and at what price?
With money market and treasuries yielding between 1%-2%, MBS are looking much more attractive to Wall Street, private investors and foreign governments.
But, at some point, the Fed will have to start selling their MBS which will drive prices down and yields up.
Local mortgage brokers expect rates to rise one-half point fairly quickly after the Fed stops buying. Many think mortgage rates will hit 6% by the end of the year.
That said, the biggest problem facing the local market right now is lack of quality inventory: quality meaning priced right and in the best neighborhoods.
The move-up tax credit of $6,500 has had little impact on the market because so few people can take advantage of it. First, anyone that is upside down on their mortgage won’t be taking a loss to gain only $6,500. Second, if you’re still working and have equity, why would you sell only to see your property taxes rise?
About the only people who will take advantage of this tax credit are seniors who are retired. They can take advantage of propositions 13, 60, and 90 to downsize yet retain their property tax base if they move within the same county or to a reciprocating county. For more information about eligibility and a list of reciprocating counties, see: http://www.boe.ca.gov/proptaxes/faqs/propositions60_90.htm
Monthly Statistics
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes in Marin rose 70.5% year-over-year in February. This is the fifth month in a row home sales have been up year-over-year.
The median price for single-family, re-sale homes gained 17.3% from January. Year-over-year, the median price was up 20.2%. The average price was up 24% from last February.
The following chart tracks each property sale from February and shows the percentage of the listing price the seller received compared to how many days the property was on the market.
The chart shows that properly priced homes sell quickly and for close to, if not more than, their asking pricing.
Condo sales were off 11.1% compared to January, but they were up 33.3% year-over-year. The median price for condos in Marin County fell 5.8% from January, a gain of 23.7% compared to February 2009. This is the sixth month in a row the year-over-year median price has increased since January 2008.
The sales price to list price ratio gained 2.6 points to 94.9%. The number of days it took to put a home into escrow was 114 days in February.
The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or for an evaluation of your home's worth, call me.
If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.
Monthly Statistics
Complete monthly sales statistics for Marin County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.
| February Sales Statistics | |||||||||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Change from last year | |||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/OLP | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | |
| Marin | $780,000 | $998,805 | 104 | 114 | 87.9% | 94.9% | 20.2% | 24.0% | 70.5% |
| Belvedere | $3,440,000 | $3,440,000 | 2 | 209 | 82.0% | 89.5% | 13.5% | 13.5% | -50.0% |
| Corte Madera | $800,000 | $805,000 | 3 | 108 | 95.7% | 99.1% | -11.7% | -11.1% | 200.0% |
| Fairfax | $595,000 | $584,000 | 3 | 152 | 88.8% | 98.8% | -5.1% | -21.4% | -25.0% |
| Greenbrae | $2,145,000 | $1,935,000 | 3 | 119 | 86.8% | 92.3% | 116.7% | 95.5% | 200.0% |
| Kentfield | $1,587,500 | $1,521,000 | 4 | 134 | 73.3% | 98.2% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Larkspur | $1,083,000 | $1,083,000 | 2 | 55 | 97.4% | 98.5% | 80.5% | 82.3% | -33.3% |
| Mill Valley | $1,415,000 | $1,552,422 | 16 | 102 | 88.1% | 92.2% | 45.1% | 24.1% | 77.8% |
| Novato | $531,500 | $630,938 | 24 | 132 | 90.7% | 97.9% | 7.9% | -7.9% | 50.0% |
| Ross | $2,197,500 | $2,197,500 | 1 | 16 | 95.8% | 95.8% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| San Anselmo | $722,500 | $696,600 | 8 | 68 | 95.1% | 97.5% | 4.2% | -4.4% | -20.0% |
| San Rafael | $652,950 | $759,506 | 24 | 100 | 89.0% | 96.1% | 8.8% | 12.5% | 84.6% |
| Sausalito | $895,000 | $895,000 | 1 | 173 | 82.9% | 99.4% | 55.7% | 55.7% | 0.0% |
| Tiburon | $1,050,000 | $1,085,375 | 8 | 155 | 86.2% | 95.2% | -26.8% | -24.4% | 300.0% |
SP/LP = Sales price divided by the listing price at the time of
sale
SP/OLP =Sales price divided by the price for which the property was originally
listed
| February Sales Statistics | |||||||||
| (Condos/Townhomes) | |||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Change from last year | |||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/OLP | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | |
| Marin | $339,000 | $406,047 | 32 | 123 | S:S) | 96.8% | 23.7% | 21.8% | 33.3% |
| Corte Madera | $645,500 | $600,167 | 3 | 148 | S:S) | 97.2% | 74.5% | 62.2% | 200.0% |
| Greenbrae | $401,500 | $425,125 | 4 | 128 | S:S) | 95.8% | 2.3% | 8.3% | 100.0% |
| Mill Valley | $912,500 | $912,500 | 2 | 221 | S:S) | 94.3% | 126.7% | 126.7% | 0.0% |
| Novato | $234,000 | $253,136 | 11 | 86 | S:S) | 97.5% | -10.0% | -12.0% | 120.0% |
| San Rafael | $331,500 | $359,125 | 8 | 97 | S:S) | 99.2% | 53.5% | 18.5% | -33.3% |
| Sausalito | $675,000 | $675,000 | 1 | 32 | S:S) | 100.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Tiburon | $735,000 | $735,000 | 1 | 246 | S:S) | 91.9% | 52.2% | 52.2% | -50.0% |