Sales Slip, Prices Rise After Fed Tax Credit Expires
| Trends at a Glance | |||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||
| Jul 10 | Jun 10 | Jul 09 | |
| Median Price: | $800,000 | $815,000 | $765,750 |
| Average Price: | $1,073,026 | $1,041,091 | $1,046,104 |
| Home Sales: | 171 | 217 | 162 |
| Sale/List Price Ratio: | 96.5% | 96.2% | 94.7% |
| Days on Market: | 80 | 80 | 95 |
While sales of single-family, re-sale homes dropped 21.2% from June, they were up, year-over-year, in July for the tenth month in a row: 5.6%. Year-to-date, home sales are up 33.1%.
Although the median price for homes fell 1.8% from June, it was up 2.6% from last July. The average price scored a 3.1% increase from June, and was up 2.6% year-over-year.
The numbers should be looked at for the year to date as well as for a forecast of where we might be in the months ahead. From my experience in the field, I am seeing a strong slowdown in sales during the months of July and August to date. We usually have a slowdown starting at the end of July but this one has been a sharp decrease in activity including reduced showings of new and existing listings, an increase in interim price reductions and buyers waiting to see if prices will drop in the months ahead.
There does not appear to be significant motivation from buyers to pull the trigger, and from my discussion with other brokers in the area, the mantra on the street is that buyers are waiting to see if prices will drop and sellers are hoping that prices will rise if they hold out for a few more months. Both of these approaches are what I believe is causing part of the stall in the re-sale market here in Marin County.
It is interesting to look at 6 month trends for median prices of units sold, units under contract and units for sale. We can see that the median list price is pushing its way up slightly but the median price of a home sold has stayed flat for the 24 week period.
Click the following charts and tables to expand them. Click again to super expand them. Click on your browsers back button to return here.
The first set are for single-family homes.
The new state tax credit has pumped a little life into the high-end market. The high-end market has been helped by increasing access to jumbo and super-jumbo loans. Historically, and until July 2007, the spread or difference between conforming mortgage rates and jumbo rates moved within a narrow range of about 0.20%. At the trough of the market, the spread was 1.9%. Now, the spread is down to 0.5%, and the secondary market for jumbo loans is awakening.
Condo sales were down 10.5% year-over-year. The median price for condos was up 10.6% compared to last July, while the average price increased by 8.2%.
It is very difficult to sell a Condo in Marin County at this point in time as there are competing dynamics with bank owned and short sale condos. The “Regular” sales are at a disadvantage until we see the supply of the distressed Condos fall.
More Statistics
The following chart tracks each property sale from February and shows the percentage of the listing price the seller received compared to how many days the property was on the market.
The chart shows that properly priced homes sell quickly and for close to, if not more than, their asking pricing.
The following chart shows the percentage change for the median price of homes compared to the year before.
The sales price to list price ratio for homes gained 0.3 of a point to 96.5%.
The number of days it took to put a home into escrow rose stayed at 80 days in July.
The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or for an evaluation of your home's worth, call me.
If I can help you devise a strategy, call or click the buying or selling link in the menu to the left.
Monthly Statistics
Complete monthly sales statistics for Marin County are below. Monthly graphs are available for each city in the county.
| July Sales Statistics | |||||||||
| (Single-family Homes) | |||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Change from last year | |||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/OLP | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | |
| Marin | $800,000 | $1,073,026 | 171 | 80 | 93.3% | 96.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 5.6% |
| Belvedere | $2,300,000 | $2,300,000 | 1 | 102 | 92.0% | 96.0% | 276.7% | 232.9% | -66.7% |
| Corte Madera | $850,750 | $909,107 | 14 | 50 | 96.6% | 99.2% | -11.4% | -4.2% | 75.0% |
| Fairfax | $530,000 | $547,857 | 7 | 58 | 93.2% | 96.4% | -17.2% | -25.7% | -12.5% |
| Greenbrae | $1,086,250 | $1,343,188 | 8 | 60 | 96.1% | 98.4% | -12.4% | 15.0% | 33.3% |
| Kentfield | $1,987,500 | $2,063,125 | 8 | 103 | 86.1% | 93.4% | -35.9% | -56.5% | 166.7% |
| Larkspur | $999,000 | $1,117,643 | 7 | 53 | 102.6% | 103.9% | -44.0% | -37.4% | 600.0% |
| Mill Valley | $1,087,500 | $1,345,776 | 30 | 72 | 93.0% | 95.1% | 20.8% | 39.7% | 36.4% |
| Novato | $600,000 | $629,508 | 33 | 106 | 94.3% | 97.4% | 5.3% | -0.4% | -29.8% |
| Ross | $1,094,500 | $1,094,500 | 2 | 67 | 93.2% | 95.5% | -53.8% | -52.7% | -66.7% |
| San Anselmo | $725,000 | $856,465 | 11 | 58 | 97.1% | 98.7% | -5.1% | -14.2% | -31.3% |
| San Rafael | $741,500 | $799,477 | 33 | 76 | 93.6% | 96.5% | 9.4% | -0.4% | 3.1% |
| Sausalito | $1,102,500 | $998,750 | 4 | 190 | 76.5% | 94.4% | 24.6% | 6.7% | -20.0% |
| Tiburon | $2,469,000 | $2,778,625 | 8 | 85 | 94.8% | 95.3% | 67.7% | 33.0% | -20.0% |
SP/LP = Sales price divided by the listing price at the time of
sale
SP/OLP =Sales price divided by the price for which the property was originally
listed
| July Sales Statistics | |||||||||
| (Condos/Townhomes) | |||||||||
| Prices | Unit | Change from last year | |||||||
| Median | Average | Sales | DOM | SP/OLP | SP/LP | Median | Average | Sales | |
| Marin | $364,500 | $400,991 | 34 | 123 | S:S) | 97.3% | 10.6% | 8.2% | -10.5% |
| Corte Madera | $0 | $0 | 0 | 0 | S:S) | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Greenbrae | $350,000 | $406,000 | 3 | 152 | S:S) | 97.9% | -30.3% | -19.2% | 50.0% |
| Mill Valley | $483,000 | $483,000 | 2 | 162 | S:S) | 95.8% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Novato | $254,500 | $287,201 | 11 | 117 | S:S) | 99.3% | -7.9% | -1.3% | 10.0% |
| San Rafael | $349,000 | $379,591 | 11 | 132 | S:S) | 98.1% | 38.5% | 29.1% | -21.4% |
| Sausalito | $440,000 | $513,333 | 3 | 72 | S:S) | 94.5% | -25.0% | 7.5% | -50.0% |
| Tiburon | $625,000 | $691,667 | 3 | 112 | S:S) | 95.9% | 20.8% | 33.7% | 50.0% |