Marin Real Estate - Marin County Real Estate Market Assessment

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Marin County Real Estate - Market Assessment

I thought it would be good time to give you my assessment of the Marin market now that we have 7 months of data in the bank. Also, there are so many pundits saying "the worst is over" or "the worst is not over" or "Marin prices will be flat", that I should also weigh in on the subject.

We have seen a tale of two markets in Marin (I am only going to discuss the single family home market in this update). The market for homes under a million and the market for everything else. Let's first look at the single-family home numbers in Marin. As of July 31 there were 1197 homes on the market. 611 of those were under a million and 38% of them in contract. Over the million-dollar price-point there are 586 on the market and 17% in contract. Lets do a breakdown of those homes over one million by taking a looking at the segments.

Prices	# for sale	% in contract
$1-$2 Million	356	19
$2-$3 Million	126	9
$3-$4 Million	40	12
$4-$5 Million	26	4
Over 5 Million	38	8
Less than $1 Million	611	38

Total 1,197

Let's not lose sight that not all homes under the $1 Million mark are selling. Some are bank owned properties waiting for offers where the bank has not yet caught up with the underlying market declines or cannot make the move to lower the price. Next, we have a great many sellers putting their homes on the market and hoping for a sale above the mortgage balance and brokers fee. These sellers either don't have the funds to get the house ready for market such as dealing with deferred maintenance or staging costs. These sellers in reality are underwater and will not realize a sales price to cover the mortgage and must negotiate with the bank or in the worst of circumstances wait for a foreclosure sale.

Why are homes above $1 Million selling at slower rates compared to those at the lower price-points? Marin is one of the wealthiest counties and there is plenty of money sitting on the sidelines waiting to re-enter the real estate market. Lenders are requiring larger down payments where loans are typically non-conforming and are still difficult to obtain. In addition, appraisal methodologies have changed over the past year and appraisers are more conservative and have tighter guidelines.

The housing market does not appear to be recovering consistent with the general economy, at a slow rate. Until sellers become more realistic about prices, until banks get more comfortable that home prices are not on a continuous decline and until the general economic malaise in the country improves we will see a slow progress on home sales and prices.

The second half of 2009 should show more sales than the first half but I would not expect a significant increase.

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Broker & CPA: Ron Parks
Telephone: 415-297-9000

Licensed by the California Department of Real Estate.
Broker's License: #01524550