Marin Real Estate Update

It is Sunday December 9 and the weather is crisp, sunny and cold as I sit here at my listing at 30 Prospect in San Anselmo. So far the number of people stopping by for a view of the house has been limited to neighbors. You might be asking the question," Where did all the buyers go?" Well I am positive they are here somewhere but we won't see many of them until the New Year.

Whether it is the press that says real estate is slumping, or the holiday scene in Mill Valley and Marin taking people in other directions, the buyers are not in the market at the present time. To give you an idea on how the market is doing I like to look at the percentage of homes in contract to give us some guidance. This percentage is calculated from the total number of homes listed and those that are in contract with buyers. Anything around 20% or less is a buyer's market. Anything 30% or more is a seller's market. A balance market would be somewhere around 25%. Don't let some of these numbers fool you. The population of homes on the market is very low this time of year and especially now as sellers are unsure what to do on pricing and whether to sell or hold. When you have only 6 homes in a community on the market, like Greenbrae, the percentages look good but it is not indicative at this point of a seller's market. We will need to wait until the first few months of the New Year to see how it all falls into place.

The percentage of listed homes in contract as of December 9, 2007 is as follows:

City	Total Listed	Total in Contract	%
Belvedere	19	3	16%
Corte Madera	19	6	32%
Fairfax	21	3	14%
Greenbrae	6	3	50%
Kentfield	17	2	12%
Larkspur	15	3	20%
Mill Valley	66	16	24%
Novato	226	27	12%
Ross	14	1	7%
Sausalito	21	8	38%
San Anselmo	48	20	42%
San Rafael	152	30	20%
Tiburon	54	13	24%
Total	678	135	20%

The Novato market is problematic. There are many short sales as well as defaults in Novato due to the sub prime mortgage crisis. Sellers that can wait to sell are advised to hold on to their homes until the market stabilizes. Those that cannot wait need to get a real estate advisor that can help them navigate the treacherous turns of this market. Of course feel free to call or drop me a line at rparks@visionrealtors.com.

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